Survivor 34 Final 9 Metrics

There are nine people left meaning multiply that by 0.5 and add 0.5 means points are at stake for the winner, and the eight losers lose 0.63.  There were 3 winners of the reward (Aubry, Andrea, and Brad), so they each get 1.67.  Losing costs 0.84.

1. Andrea 115.19
2. Brad 105.46
3. Tai 102.507
4. Troyzan 101.59
5. Debbie 100.47
6. Ozzy 99.92
7. Hali 99.42
8. Aubry 99.62
9. Zeke 98.66    
10. Sarah 95.02
11. Michaela 93. 97
12.  Sierra/Cirie 92.29

 

Andrea is still number one by a large amount.  The highest ever score by a woman is Kim (One World) with 113.02, So Andrea can very well catch this.

Survivor Metrics: Game Changers Merge episode

Our current leader

 

Losing the first challenge costs 0.58 points, and winning it (Andrea) is worth 7. Hali is eliminated giving her a simple final score. Winning the next challenge (Tai) is worth 6.5 points, and losing it costs 0.59. Being on the right team on the reward is worth 1.08. Oddly the individual winners were the only winning members to be outdone by the losing team’s tem of the course. Our current score is.

1. Andrea 107.5
2. Tai 107

3-6. Ozzy/Debbie/Troyzan/Zeke 99.92

7. Hali 99.42

8-13. Aubry/Michaela/Brad/Cirie/Sarah/Sierra 97.75

Congratulations to Andrea.  She is the only player in history to win individual immunity 3 out of 3 times.  No other player has ever done that (Rob is closest at 3 of 4).

Survivor Game Changers Post Episode 1 Winner Pick

Survivor is back.  Unlike most seasons I had a winner pick before it began (Sarah), and like most All-Star seasons I will stick with it.  She is smart enough, and she seems to have learned from her past mistakes like lording her greatness over people.  She also has a small threat even with Tony gone.  If I had to make a pick from Mana I would go with Jeff. No one is bothering thinking of outing him.  Last season my winner pick got ninth and the backup got tenth, so I am hoping for a better result this time.

Survivor Metrics Season 33 Final Rankings

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ (it no longer exists sadly) a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

The first challenge was won by David and worth 3.5 points.  The second and third ones were won by Ken and worth 3 and 2.5 points respectively. Losing the first challenge cost 0.7, the second one cost 0.75, and the third one cost 0.83.

The final standings are

1. Ken 111.27

2. Jay 109.45

3. David 103.56

4. Will 10o.3

5. Taylor 99.91

6. Michelle 99.42

7. Sunday 98.89

8. Chris 98.21

9. Zeke 98.06

10. Bret 97.44

11. Adam 97.43

12. Jessica 94.61

13. Hannah 91.97

Ken is the physical champion.

Survivor Season 34: Final 8 Metrics

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula).

Both challenges were individual worth five points.  Each loser would lose 0.63.  The seven players who lost both challenges lose 1.25.  Jay and Adam in total gain 4.27.

Jay 105.82

David 102.95

Ken 102.61

Adam 101.08

Will 10o.94

Bret/Sunday 100.12

Taylor 99.91

Michelle 99.42

Chris 98.21

Zeke 98.06

Hannah 95.56

Jessica 94.61

Jay may be in the minority, but they must get rid of him soon.

Survivor 33 Pre Merge Alliance Analysis

13 Players, 3 alliances, 2 swing votes, 7 for a majority, nine for a super majority, and 1 merge boot.

The biggest alliance is the Kappa Kappa Survivor/ Tri-force alliance.  Int he final fifteen they had a very high seven players, but the last two players voted out in a row, Figgy and Michaela, were in their alliance, and two members, Will and Jay flipped.  I think that at least Jay and Will are still tight and that Taylor and Michelle will go back to them giving them four.  Hannah was in their alliance.  I think Michelle will keep her with them, but she may join the Paul alliance (more on them later).

The alliance once had six members.  They then went into the merge with only three (Christ, Bret, and Sunday), but all of them survived the swap.  I think these three have become fairly tight.  They can realistically get Zeke to join them.

The socially awkward alliance has only three members, but they also have an immunity idol.  They are Ken, David, and Jessica.

Zeke and Adam were earlier in an alliance, but I think they are both free agents who may turn on each other.  For two episodes Zeke was in a tribe with the leader of each alliance, which means he has his choice on who to join, and he knows David has an idol.  Adam currently has no affiliations with the Paul alliance, but he may join them.

                                        Prediction

Chris aggressively targets the Kappa Kappa Survivor alliance by trying to bring in both Gen X alliances and Zeke to have seven people.  Zeke is fine with it, but they do not recruit Adam well making him nervous of Chris.  Ken, Adam, and Jessica do not want to work with Chris, and Michelle pulls them over.  David joins his alliance giving them a super majority of 9-4 and all three idols.  Chris is the merge boot unless he wins immunity, then Bret is the merge boot.

Survivor 33 Post Episode 3 top Physical Threats.

Three episodes into season 33 of Survivor.  There have only been three challenges, and the first one does not give a good indication of physical abilities except for puzzle solving.  The second required a wide range of abilities, like swimming, diving, and throwing.  The third challenge required balance, strength, throwing, and puzzle solving.

 

         The millennials have treated Hannah as their weakest link.  She sat out the second challenge, and in the third challenge she was given the smallest role.  Mari was a weak link on their team.  In the second challenge she took a very long time to get out of the water.  Will seems to be athletic, but his balance and hunger are an issue.  He was beaten by Paul in episode 2, and he did not balance well in episode 3.  Other than these three out of 10 the Millennials seem to have a tribe that is very strong all the way through.

        A few other players have no really gotten big roles for impressions, but they seem solid.  Adam and Zeke have not been called to do much, but they have done their jobs well.  Zeke especially did well in the water and in a puzzle.

        

         Their best four challenge competitors aligned early.  Figgy is arguably worse at challenges than Zeke, and she is the weakest of this group.  She did very well in the first puzzle, but she played second fiddle to Michelle.  The main reason she is here is she is the only one to carry her bag besides Taylor in episode 3.  Taylor has been unimpressive except his incredible performance in episode 3, where the Millennials successfully designed their strategy around him.  Jay has mostly done the throwing portion.  Michelle is their top competitor.  She lead the Millennials to dominating both puzzles.  The one challenge she did not do the puzzle she tied with Chris at swimming.

The Gen X tribe has weaker weak links.  Cece was very bad at diving and balancing.  She also seems unaware of her limits.  At least she has god short throwing ability, but that is not needed due to Ken.  Besides her David, Sunday, and Rachel have been weak at the challenges and making puzzle eras with Sunday being the best of them.

       Their mid tier also only seems to be adequate.  Paul struggles in challenges 1 and 3, but he beat Will convincingly in challenge 2.  Jessica did kind of well in challenge 1, and she helped her team get back in the challenge in episode 2, and they went on to win, yet in challenge 3 she was given the least important role.  Bret has not been much help at all to Gen X, as he struggled at balance badly, but he at least has a good dive.

They only have two notably good players to their opponents 4.  Chris did notably well in challenge 3, but not nearly as well as Taylor did.  He also only tied with Michelle in challenge 2.  Their only real saving part so far is Ken.  He has been doing incredibly well these last two challenges and outperforming Jay in the same roles.  Good thing for keeping these challenges good the Generation X players probably has the best challenge competitor.

         With these people it is no wonder the Millennials have won two challenges by wide margins and barely lost the other one.  They have a huge puzzle advantage, and a larger group of capable competitors to choose from.  The only thing the Generation Xers have competed with them is throwing and to a lesser extent diving.  Also sparing Cece could really hurt them in future challenges.

 

 

Survivor Kaoh Rong Episode 12: Survivor Metrics

At the website http://www.survivormetrics.com/ a formula was made to determine the best physical threats based off the IQ test.  The website has not updated since season 27 ended, but I have received permission to use the formula and post results (and give credit to the blogger who made the formula.

Joe finally won a challenge.  He won 3 points.  Everyone else lost 0.75

1. Tai 106.7

2. Nick 106.39

3. Julia 106.1

4. Michele 102.45

5. Jason 102.16

6. Scot 99.52

7. Neal 99.4

8. Debbie 97.56

9. Cydney 96.28

10. Joe 93.2

11. Aubry 89.45

 

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Survivor Kaoh Rong Episode 12: Path to Victory for Final 5

First off I am one of the few people who thought the reward challenge was bad.  It came to down to our worst guy is better than your worst guy, and the same puzzle three times was just repetitive.  Due to Michele and Joe receiving votes no one can get the perfect game this season.

Aubry is still my pick to win it all.  They showed her strategizing and contemplating a move when it really did not matter, which furthers her winner’s edit.  Even without the edit, I think she could sweep the current jury votes based off respect showed to her and shown in exit interviews.  Since no one has won immunity twice she is due.  If she wins immunity then I think her best move is to target Michele or Cydney.  Cydney is more loyal to her so vote out Michele and then Cydney to take Tai and Joe to the final three.  If it is a final two I think either of them would take her.  Victory

I cannot picture her beating Aubry, but she could beat anyone else.  I think she should try to get Tai, and Michele to vote out Aubry next.  If she wins immunity go for Joe.  If Aubry is gone then vote out Tai.  If Joe is gone take out Aubry then.

 

        She has a slim chance against Aubry.  Her best move is to remove Aubry and Cydney next assuming Tai is with her.  Make final two alliance with Tai.  Convince Cydney to turn on Aubry.  Then recruit Joe to take out Cydney.  May have to win final three immunity challenge, but Tai has not been performing well lately.

 

          You are terrible at tribal council and that makes it hard to plead a case for the jury.  Go for the Neal/Debbie votes by removing Aubry.  Then take out Michele.  In final three take Joe if it is up to you.

          Hope the jury rewards you for loyalty.  Try to help Aubry recruit Cydney to vote out Michele.  Then protect Aubry as you two go the finals.  Hope there is a bitter jury.

Survivor Kaoh Rong Episode 11: PAth to Victory for Final 6

      Aubry is still my pick to win.  Her edit was lacking in sotries, but she was shown to be in complete control of the majority alliance.  I am getting the impression from the preview that next episode she is the swing vote between Cydney and Michele.  I think her best move is to remove Cydney in a blindside and then take out Jason.  With that Joe is with her and make a final three deal with both Tai and a separate one with Michele.  Her win.

       Cydney is now in a good position to make a move against Aubry.  The problem is the only people she could beat are Michele and Joe.  Time to blindside Tai then go for Aubry.  After that go for Jason.  To do that first remove… by…I really cannot see her doing that.  Just blindside Aubry in the very late game and try to seem in control for the vote.

         Michele is finally starting to emerge as something besides a winner’s edit.  Try to get the votes for Tai and Jason.  Then remove Aubry.  Go to final three with Cydney and Joe.

         I think his best move is to go to the end with Jason and Cydney.  Next move is to join with the non Brains and go for Aubry.  After that take out Jason.  In the final four take out Michele.

Besides Joe who could he beat?  Maybe Cydney.  Try to turn everyone on Aubry.

  Joe has no shot.